
1. In the "counterfactual contingent concept," the "concept" refers to
~ In the "counterfactual contingent concept," the "concept" refers to something crucial on which subsequent historical development was supposed to have depended, making later developments "contingent" on it.
@ In the "counterfactual contingent concept," the "concept" refers to something crucial on which subsequent historical development was supposed to have depended, making later developments "contingent" on it.
a. the Hegelian "Idea."
b. later developments that relied upon some crucial foundation.
*c. something crucial on which subsequent historical development was supposed to have depended.
d. the lack of investment into development of motor vehicles as a result of railroad development.

2. "If success in this operation required a profit of 6 per cent on the sale price, the average profit of the merchants would have been $1.98 per ton. Suppose now that railroads denied their facilities to one of the merchants and that the next most favorable form of transportation involved a 50 per cent increase in shipping charges. Such an occurrence would have been a catastrophe for the merchant involved. A rise in shipping costs of the stipulated magnitude would have transformed the merchant's normal profit into a 7 per cent loss. However, the total freight revenue of all railroads in 1890 was $714,000,000. Consequently, if in the absence of railroads there were a 50 per cent increase in the cost of shipping all those goods that were actually carried by the railroads in 1890, the reduction in the production potential of the economy would have been only $357,000,000 or about 3 per cent of gross national product." In this quotation, Fogel
~ In this quotation, Fogel uses cliometrics to show that the absence of railroads would not deliver a crushing blow to the economy. Fogel explains the economic aspects of the railroads in a way that narrative sources did not present.
@ In this quotation, Fogel uses cliometrics to show that the absence of railroads would not deliver a crushing blow to the economy. Fogel explains the economic aspects of the railroads in a way that narrative sources did not present.
a. proves using economic theory that without railroads the United States economy would have collapsed.
b. employs the fallacy of composition to show that the claim of the railroad being vital to the economy is false. 
*c. uses cliometrics to show that the absence of railroads would not have delivered a crushing blow to the economy.
d. explains aspects of history that narrative sources do not present, in this case showing that a 50 per cent increase in the shipping of all goods would not have in any way affected the United States economy.

3. The "axiom of indispensablility" in this selection by Fogel is
~ The "axiom of indispensability" in this selection by Fogel is the idea that railways were essential to nineteenth-century American economic prosperity.
@ The "axiom of indispensability" in this selection by Fogel is the idea that railways were essential to nineteenth-century American economic prosperity.
a. the later than necessary blooming of the American automobile industry.
b. the concept that economic theory, numerical data, and statistical and mathematical analyses can help to explain aspects of history that narrative sources do not present.
c. the fault in logic that railways were the primary reasoning for a psychological atmosphere favoring economic growth by building transportation lines across sparsely settled territories.
*d. the idea that railways were essential to nineteenth-century American economic prosperity.

4. Which of the following accurately illustrates the fallacy of composition?
~ Because Hydrogen is not wet, and Oxygen is not wet, then H20 is not wet. The fallacy of composition is the inference that something is true of a whole because it is true of a part of the whole. The opposite of this is known as the fallacy of division.
@ Because Hydrogen is not wet, and Oxygen is not wet, then H20 is not wet. The fallacy of composition is the inference that something is true of a whole because it is true of a part of the whole. The opposite of this is known as the fallacy of division.
a. A is part of B. A has property X. Therefore, B=X.
*b. Since Hydrogen is not wet, and Oxygen is not wet, then H20 is not wet.
c. A particular band's discography has a high rating from critics; therefore, critics give high ratings to every song from that band.
d. A=B. B=C. Therefore, A=C.

5. According to Fogel, the idea that railroad development was crucial for the economic prosperity of America originated with
~ According to Fogel, the idea that railroad development was crucial for the economic prosperity of America originated with newspaper reports from the 1860s and became axiomatic for those who studied American economic development.
@ According to Fogel, the idea that railroad development was crucial for the economic prosperity of America originated with newspaper reports from the 1860s and became axiomatic for those who studied American economic development.
a. the theories of Walt W. Rostow, who argued that railroads triggered American “take-off” into “self-sustained growth” and “led on to the development of modern coal, iron and engineering industries."
b. the dominant class of industrial capitalists who invested in railroads and thus had .
*c. newspaper reports from the 1860s and became axiomatic for those who studied American economic development.
d. mass advertising campaigns from big railroad.

6. According to Fogel, if railways had not come into existence,
~ If railways had not come into existence, waterways and perhaps the horseless carriage would have been developed further and sooner.
@ If railways had not come into existence, waterways and perhaps the horseless carriage would have been developed further and sooner.
a. then motor vehicles would have played a pivotal role in the American Civil War.
b. America would not have become the economic giant it is today.
c. there would have been no possible means of trade from great distance, such as from Kansas City to New York.
*d. waterways and perhaps the horseless carriage would have been developed further and sooner.

7. The use of economic theory, numerical data, and statistical and mathematical analyses to explain aspects of history that narrative sources do not present is called
~ The use of economic theory, numerical data, and statistical and mathematical analyses to explain aspects of history that narrative sources do not present is called cliometrics.
@ The use of economic theory, numerical data, and statistical and mathematical analyses to explain aspects of history that narrative sources do not present is called cliometrics.
a. economic history.
*b. cliometrics.
c. econometics
d. plyometrics

8. Which of the following statements from the text constitutes a key part of Fogel’s argument that railroads were not essential to American development?
~ "The conclusion that the railroad was a necessary condition for the widening of the market thus flows not from a body of observed data but from the unverified assumption that the cost per unit of transportation service was significantly less by rail than by water."
@ "The conclusion that the railroad was a necessary condition for the widening of the market thus flows not from a body of observed data but from the unverified assumption that the cost per unit of transportation service was significantly less by rail than by water."
*a. "The conclusion that the railroad was a necessary condition for the widening of the market thus flows not from a body of observed data but from the unverified assumption that the cost per unit of transportation service was significantly less by rail than by water."
b. "Thus by the opening of the Gilded Age the railroad had already won a strong claim to the title of indispensability. During the next three decades the concept of the railroad as the chief agent of economic and social transformation became an integral part of popular thought..."
c. "Far from being viewed as essential to economic development, the first railroads were widely regarded as having only limited commercial application."
d. "...it said, the railroad was 'the most tremendous and far-reaching engine of social revolution which has ever either blessed or cursed the earth.'"

9. "Counterfactual" methods of historical analysis 
~ "Counterfactual" methods of historical analysis can tear down consensually-accepted historical assumptions and usher in new understandings of the past.
@ "Counterfactual" methods of historical analysis can tear down consensually-accepted historical assumptions and usher in new understandings of the past.
a. rely on past historians employing fallacies of composition.
b. can only be used in economic histories.
c. do not aid a historian in any way to understanding what actually happened in history.
*d. can tear down consensually-accepted historical assumptions.

10. In the phrase "counterfactual contingent concept," "contingent" refers to
~ In the phrase "counterfactual contingent concept," "contingent" refers to the assumption that later developments relied upon something critical (the concept). If the concept (railway development in the U.S., or Hitler's leadership of the Nazi Party) were removed from the analysis, would the contingent events (U.S. prosperity, the Holocaust) still happen by other means?
@ In the phrase "counterfactual contingent concept," "contingent" refers to the assumption that later developments relied upon something critical (the concept). If the concept (railway development in the U.S., or Hitler's leadership of the Nazi Party) were removed from the analysis, would the contingent events (U.S. prosperity, the Holocaust) still happen by other means?
*a. the assumption that later developments relied upon something critical.
b. something crucial on which subsequent historical development was supposed to have depended.
c. subject to chance.
d. the necessity of the American railroad system to U.S. economic development.